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NBA Top Shot · Pack #7726

Rookie Revelation Standard Pack

Name: Rookie Revelation Standard Pack
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 25 USD

Common4 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $23.01/pack▼ 70% below the $77.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $77.00 askTypical pull ≈ $4.00 · grail premium $19.01 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$77.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

5,133

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

20,532

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$83,538

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$17.40

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

419

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $23.01/packvs realized $17.48 avg · $5.62 median · $13.17 p90(0.76×)

Calibrated estimate $8.76/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 3,830 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Cooper Flagg · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.05%	$4,365	35.1%
VJ Edgecombe · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.05%	$1,111	8.9%
Kon Knueppel

Sealed pack resale

Median $68.95 (90d)Last $77.98 · 3d agoRetail $77.004,914 sales · 84 in 90d

trades ~0.90× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$77.00

Actual EV

$23.01

Net −$53.99 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $77.00 ask

Typical Pull

$4.00

Grail premium $19.01 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.30x

-70.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $77.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

225 editions

Depletion

93%

pool · as of 1d ago

Packs remaining

540

of 7,250 minted · as of 1d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 1d ago

7.4%unopened

540 / 7,250 packs

Ultimate1 / 7 (14%)

0.19 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10 · 1.9× launch rate

Legendary18 / 262 (6.9%)

3.3 per 100 sealed packs · launch 3.6 · ≈ launch rate

Rare167 / 2,453 (6.8%)

31 per 100 sealed packs · launch 34 · ≈ launch rate

Common1,974 / 26,278 (7.5%)

Pull odds by tier

4 slots/pack · as of 1d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Ultimate	1 / 7	<0.1%	~1 in 540
Legendary	18 / 262	0.8%	~1 in 30
Rare	167 / 2,453	7.7%	~1 in 4
Common	1,974 / 26,278	91%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 4 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 225 of 225 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Anderson_Pack	$77.98	3d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$77.00	3d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$77.00	3d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$77.00	3d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$77.00	3d ago
@Rigged	$77.00	4d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$76.99	5d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$75.00	5d ago
@Anderson_Pack	$74.00	5d ago
@MikeMegatron	$74.00	28d ago

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Lachlan Olbrich	Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.00%	$1.89	<$0.01
Jahmai Mashack	Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.00%	$1.82	<$0.01

Rookie Revelation Standard Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV