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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8261
NBA Stars: The National Exclusive Chase Pack
Common2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$14.00
Actual EV
$5.82
Net −$8.18 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (88% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $14.00
Typical Pull
$1.60
Grail premium $4.22 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
0.42x
-58.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (88% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $14.00
FMV coverage
100%
15 editions
Depletion
88%
live pool
Packs remaining
31
of 265 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 13h ago12%unopened
Rare5 / 48 (10%)
Common37 / 482 (7.7%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 13h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 5 / 48 | 12% | ~1 in 4 |
| Common | 37 / 482 | 88% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 15 of 15 (100%)Kawhi Leonard
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$17.31
Floor
$12.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Damian Lillard
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$14.26
Floor
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
DeMar DeRozan
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$9.00
Floor
$7.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Damon Stoudamire
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$8.58
Floor
$7.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Andrea Bargnani
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$7.62
Floor
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$1.91
Floor
$1.00
Mint 16,000
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
LeBron James
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$1.02
Floor
$0.85
Mint 2,500
Hit 12.00%Wt 0.097
Jalen Brunson
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.86
Floor
$0.09
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.75
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 16.00%Wt 0.129
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.67
Floor
$0.50
Mint 8,500
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Anthony Edwards
2025 NBA Playoffs: Common
COMMON7
FMV
$0.61
Floor
$0.34
Mint 2,025
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.58
Floor
$0.20
Mint 40,000
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032
Anthony Edwards
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.51
Floor
$0.26
Mint 2,500
Hit 16.00%Wt 0.129
Jalen Brunson
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 12.00%Wt 0.097
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.032