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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8514

2026 NBA Playoffs Trade Ticket Pack

Name: 2026 NBA Playoffs Trade Ticket Pack
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 10 USD

Common

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $0.38/pack▼ 79% below the $1.83 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.83 askTypical pull ≈ $0.20 · value evenly spread

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.83] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

11,123

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

33,369

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$10,011

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.13

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

877

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $0.38/packvs realized $1.24 avg · $0.91 median · $2.37 p90(3.26×)

Calibrated estimate $0.97/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 151 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
LeBron James · 2026 NBA Playoffs	COMMON	0.98%	$2.50	6.5%
Victor Wembanyama · 2026 NBA Playoffs	COMMON	0.83%	$2.90	6.4%
LeBron James

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.88 (90d)Last $1.83 · todayRetail $1.832,260 sales · 158 in 90d

trades ~1.03× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$1.83

Actual EV

$0.38

Net −$1.45 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.83 ask

Typical Pull

$0.20

Grail premium $0.18 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

0.21x

-79.2% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.83 ask

FMV coverage

100%

140 editions

Depletion

93%

pool · as of 18h ago

Packs remaining

881

of 12,000 minted · as of 18h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 18h ago

7.3%unopened

881 / 12,000 packs

Legendary0 / 3 (0.0%)

0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.03

Rare3 / 35 (8.6%)

0.34 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.29 · 1.2× launch rate

Common2,640 / 35,962 (7.3%)

Pull odds by tier

per pack · as of 18h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	0 / 3	0.0%	depleted
Rare	3 / 35	0.1%	—
Common	2,640 / 35,962	100%	—

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 140 of 140 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@codybeeteam	$3.00	129d ago
@impartial_gerbil2775	$3.00	132d ago
@JDmfG	$3.00	134d ago
@D_iantre	$3.00	135d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$3.00	135d ago
@GameDayTrading	$3.00	135d ago
@GameDayTrading	$3.00	135d ago
@GameDayTrading	$3.00	135d ago
@GameDayTrading	$3.00	135d ago
@GameDayTrading	$3.00	135d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@kolekillaaa	$1.83	4h ago
@zro888	$1.83	8h ago
@DolmioGrins	$1.83	13h ago
@DolmioGrins	$1.83

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Caleb Martin	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$0.20	—
Guerschon Yabusele	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$0.20	—

2026 NBA Playoffs Trade Ticket Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV