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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8767

Heroes & Rookies

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $4.42/pack▼ 78% below the $20.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $20.00 askTypical pull ≈ $0.51 · grail premium $3.91 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$20.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,412

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

13,236

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$18,259

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.42

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $4.42/packvs realized $5.18 avg · $0.64 median · $10.15 p90(1.17×)

Calibrated estimate $2.46/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 2,685 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Luka Dončić · Run It Back: Origins 2014-19	RARE	0.06%	$225	8.6%
Austin Reaves · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	0.06%	$90.00	3.4%
Anthony Edwards

Sealed pack resale

Median $9.53 (90d)Last $19.50 · 2d agoRetail $20.00190 sales · 190 in 90d

trades 0.48× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$20.00

Actual EV

$4.42

Net −$15.58 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $20.00 ask

Typical Pull

$0.51

Grail premium $3.91 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.22x

-77.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $20.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

220 editions

Depletion

88%

pool · as of 11h ago

Packs remaining

590

of 5,000 minted · as of 11h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 11h ago

12%unopened

590 / 5,000 packs

Ultimate0 / 5 (0.0%)

0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10

Legendary4 / 21 (19%)

0.68 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.42 · 1.6× launch rate

Rare120 / 785 (15%)

20 per 100 sealed packs · launch 16 · 1.3× launch rate

Common1,646 / 14,189 (12%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 11h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Ultimate	0 / 5	0.0%	depleted
Legendary	4 / 21	0.2%	~1 in 148
Rare	120 / 785	6.8%	~1 in 5
Common	1,646 / 14,189	93%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

RareHit 0.06%

Luka Dončić

Run It Back: Origins 2014-19

What's Inside

FMV priced 220 of 220 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@banana21chiu	$19.50	2d ago
@banana21chiu	$16.00	11d ago
@banana21chiu	$16.00	15d ago
@banana21chiu	$14.00	18d ago
@alahley	$13.00	55d ago
@Johnny3Fingers	$12.74	55d ago
@banana21chiu	$12.48	18d ago
@Johnny3Fingers	$12.14	53d ago
0x3262…5bc0	$12.14	53d ago
@blaise_27	$12.14	53d ago

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Max Strus	Base Set	COMMON	2.54%	$0.22	$0.02
Jonathan Kuminga	Base Set	COMMON	2.71%	$0.17	$0.01

Heroes & Rookies

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV