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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8777

Spotlight: WNBA Metallic Gold

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $2.40/pack▼ 55% below the $5.28 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.28 askTypical pull ≈ $0.60 · grail premium $1.80 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.28] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

827

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

2,481

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2,511

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$3.51

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

173

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $2.40/packvs realized $3.47 avg · $0.69 median · $8.43 p90(1.45×)

Calibrated estimate $1.92/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 698 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Rhyne Howard · WNBA Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	0.19%	$80.00	19.3%
Awak Kuier · Level Up	RARE	0.19%	$27.00	6.5%
Alyssa Thomas

Sealed pack resale

Median $5.38 (90d)Last $5.27 · 10d agoRetail $5.28157 sales · 157 in 90d

trades ~1.02× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.28

Actual EV

$2.40

Net −$2.88 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.28 ask

Typical Pull

$0.60

Grail premium $1.80 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.45x

-54.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.28 ask

FMV coverage

100%

107 editions

Depletion

83%

pool · as of 11h ago

Packs remaining

173

of 1,000 minted · as of 11h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 11h ago

17%unopened

173 / 1,000 packs

Legendary1 / 7 (14%)

0.58 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.70 · 0.8× launch rate

Rare25 / 152 (16%)

14 per 100 sealed packs · launch 15 · ≈ launch rate

Common493 / 2,841 (17%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 11h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 7	0.2%	~1 in 173
Rare	25 / 152	4.8%	~1 in 7
Common	493 / 2,841	95%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

WNBA Metallic Gold LE 2023

$19.99

RareHit 0.19%

Nneka Ogwumike

WNBA Metallic Gold LE 2023

What's Inside

FMV priced 107 of 107 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@BigCountry_Reeves	$7.20	46d ago
@KIDD082003	$6.90	43d ago
@UpUpCrypto	$6.88	43d ago
@CraftBear	$6.84	43d ago
@UpUpCrypto	$6.80	43d ago
@colorful_robin4642	$6.79	46d ago
@Chrisballgame	$6.00	43d ago
@Chrisballgame	$6.00	43d ago
@Chrisballgame	$6.00	43d ago
@Chrisballgame	$6.00	43d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Quintenchen	$5.27	10d ago
@Cheitib78	$5.26	11d ago
@GladstoneGander	$5.26	12d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.24

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Caitlin Clark	WNBA Base Set	COMMON	1.35%	$0.80	$0.03
Kaitlyn Chen	WNBA Base Set	COMMON	2.31%	$0.22	$0.02

Spotlight: WNBA Metallic Gold

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV