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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8868

Spotlight: WNBA Legendary Rookies

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $1.87/pack▼ 63% below the $5.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 askTypical pull ≈ $0.66 · grail premium $1.21 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

817

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

2,451

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4,504

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$6.89

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

118

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $1.87/packvs realized $6.89 avg · $1.11 median · $3.42 p90(3.68×)

Calibrated estimate $1.45/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 654 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Aneesah Morrow · WNBA Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.18%	$100	29.3%
Isobel Borlase · WNBA Rookie Debut	COMMON	1.46%	$4.00	9.4%
Sydney Taylor

Sealed pack resale

Median $2.67 (90d)Last $5.00 · 3d agoRetail $5.00199 sales · 199 in 90d

trades 0.53× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.00

Actual EV

$1.87

Net −$3.13 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask

Typical Pull

$0.66

Grail premium $1.21 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.37x

-62.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

99 editions

Depletion

82%

pool · as of 7h ago

Packs remaining

183

of 1,000 minted · as of 7h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 7h ago

18%unopened

183 / 1,000 packs

Legendary1 / 12 (8.3%)

0.55 per 100 sealed packs · launch 1.2 · 0.5× launch rate

Common548 / 2,988 (18%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 7h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 12	0.2%	~1 in 183
Common	548 / 2,988	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

LegendaryHit 0.18%

Aneesah Morrow

WNBA Rookie Revelation

What's Inside

FMV priced 99 of 99 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Quintenchen	$6.00	27d ago
@user12043430	$5.50	23d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.39	27d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.35	44d ago
@PrimeSupreme	$5.32	44d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.30	27d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.30	27d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.30	27d ago
@NFTPIRATE	$5.27	44d ago
@PrimeSupreme	$5.25	44d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@user3229472	$5.00	3d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.15	11d ago
@user12043430	$5.50	23d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.00

Spotlight: WNBA Legendary Rookies

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV