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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8900

Class of '25 Pack

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $4.23/pack▼ 60% below the $10.55 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.55 askTypical pull ≈ $0.51 · grail premium $3.72 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$10.55] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

540

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

1,620

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2,488

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.92

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

110

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $4.23/packvs realized $4.92 avg · $0.63 median · $1.01 p90(1.16×)

Calibrated estimate $1.21/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 506 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Cooper Flagg · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.30%	$258	54.9%
Kon Knueppel · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.60%	$62.00	26.4%

Sealed pack resale

Median $12.00 (90d)Last $10.69 · yesterdayRetail $10.55202 sales · 202 in 90d

trades ~1.14× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$10.55

Actual EV

$4.23

Net −$6.32 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.55 ask

Typical Pull

$0.51

Grail premium $3.72 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.40x

-59.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 83% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.55 ask

FMV coverage

100%

62 editions

Depletion

83%

pool · as of 19h ago

Packs remaining

111

of 650 minted · as of 19h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 19h ago

17%unopened

111 / 650 packs

Common333 / 1,950 (17%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 19h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Common	333 / 1,950	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 62 of 62 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@self_assured_sea_horse4973	$18.00	22d ago
@Mempheattle	$14.00	22d ago
@Rychu	$14.00	22d ago
@Rychu	$14.00	22d ago
@ChewieWoolf	$14.00	22d ago
@Ayoman	$13.95	22d ago
@Ayoman	$13.95	22d ago
@Ayoman	$13.88	22d ago
@Ayoman	$13.50	22d ago
@Mempheattle	$13.49	22d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Geba9901	$10.69	16h ago
@goucho727	$10.69	22h ago
@user8457739	$10.69	1d ago
@Matakias12	$10.69

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Tyson Etienne	Base Set	COMMON	2.10%	$0.37	$0.02
Anthony Gill	Base Set	COMMON	2.10%	$0.30	$0.02

Class of '25 Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV