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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8904

Jersey Swap: Opening Night Fresh Threads Pack

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $7.72/pack▼ 50% below the $15.39 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.39 askTypical pull ≈ $0.48 · grail premium $7.24 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$15.39] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,268

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

3,804

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$7,077

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$6.10

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

232

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $7.72/packvs realized $6.10 avg · $0.57 median · $0.72 p90(0.79×)

Calibrated estimate $1.65/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 1,160 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jaylen Brown · Fresh Threads	RARE	0.14%	$900	48.0%
LeBron James · Fresh Threads	RARE	0.27%	$269	28.7%
Paul George

Sealed pack resale

Median $11.35 (90d)Last $15.38 · todayRetail $15.39448 sales · 448 in 90d

trades 0.74× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$15.39

Actual EV

$7.72

Net −$7.67 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.39 ask

Typical Pull

$0.48

Grail premium $7.24 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.50x

-49.8% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.39 ask

FMV coverage

100%

69 editions

Depletion

84%

pool · as of 6h ago

Packs remaining

243

of 1,500 minted · as of 6h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 6h ago

16%unopened

243 / 1,500 packs

Legendary1 / 2 (50%)

0.41 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.13 · 3.1× launch rate

Rare25 / 139 (18%)

10 per 100 sealed packs · launch 9.3 · 1.1× launch rate

Common703 / 4,359 (16%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 6h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 2	0.1%	~1 in 243
Rare	25 / 139	3.4%	~1 in 10
Common	703 / 4,359	96%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 69 of 69 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@PrHyMe_RocKeR3	$16.88	10d ago
@Raybolts	$16.83	10d ago
@PrHyMe_RocKeR3	$16.23	10d ago
@sanjaypsetty	$16.00	9d ago
@NBACLLCTR3011	$15.85	9d ago
@RTRS	$15.68	2d ago
@HerbieHerb76ers	$15.59	2d ago
@Cmak11	$15.50	3d ago
@HerbieHerb76ers	$15.49	2d ago
@Kyhill7	$15.49	3d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@alxMars	$15.38	3h ago
@Cipcipnumero34	$15.37	3h ago
@bergzh	$15.29	4h ago
@bergzh	$15.29

Jersey Swap: Opening Night Fresh Threads Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV