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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8905

Darryn Peterson Tip-Off Pack

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $3.47/pack▼ 65% below the $9.98 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 63% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.98 askTypical pull ≈ $0.48 · grail premium $2.99 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$9.98] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

949

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

2,847

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$3,319

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$3.82

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

551

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $3.47/packvs realized $3.82 avg · $0.53 median · $0.67 p90(1.10×)

Calibrated estimate $0.98/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 869 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Darryn Peterson · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.36%	$140	43.1%
Kyshawn George · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.06%	$180	9.2%

Sealed pack resale

Median $10.55 (90d)Last $9.99 · todayRetail $9.98471 sales · 471 in 90d

trades ~1.06× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$9.98

Actual EV

$3.47

Net −$6.51 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 63% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.98 ask

Typical Pull

$0.48

Grail premium $2.99 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.35x

-65.2% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 63% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.98 ask

FMV coverage

100%

95 editions

Depletion

63%

pool · as of 10h ago

Packs remaining

561

of 1,500 minted · as of 10h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 10h ago

37%unopened

561 / 1,500 packs

Legendary2 / 3 (67%)

0.36 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.20 · 1.8× launch rate

Rare41 / 102 (40%)

7.3 per 100 sealed packs · launch 6.8 · ≈ launch rate

Common1,640 / 4,395 (37%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 10h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	2 / 3	0.1%	~1 in 281
Rare	41 / 102	2.4%	~1 in 14
Common	1,640 / 4,395	97%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 95 of 95 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Hammanator	$13.00	12d ago
@BigDaddaBear	$13.00	12d ago
@Hammanator	$13.00	12d ago
@BigDaddaBear	$12.99	12d ago
@BigDaddaBear	$12.49	12d ago
@Quintenchen	$12.45	12d ago
@Notrealife	$12.00	12d ago
@Geo3	$11.95	12d ago
@onarolljoel	$11.93	12d ago
@onarolljoel	$11.93	12d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@faraway_elderberry6965	$9.99	3h ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$9.98	3h ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$9.95	3h ago
@Cipcipnumero34	$9.98

Darryn Peterson Tip-Off Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV