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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8907

Cameron Boozer Tip-Off Pack

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $5.18/pack▼ 69% below the $16.45 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 67% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $16.45 askTypical pull ≈ $0.48 · grail premium $4.70 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$16.45] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,001

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

3,003

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4,510

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.97

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

301

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $5.18/packvs realized $4.98 avg · $0.52 median · $0.64 p90(0.96×)

Calibrated estimate $1.22/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 906 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Cameron Boozer · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.60%	$195	67.4%
Alex Sarr · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.07%	$120	4.6%
CJ McCollum

Sealed pack resale

Median $13.33 (90d)Last $16.25 · todayRetail $16.45432 sales · 432 in 90d

trades 0.81× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$16.45

Actual EV

$5.18

Net −$11.27 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 67% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $16.45 ask

Typical Pull

$0.48

Grail premium $4.70 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.31x

-68.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 67% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $16.45 ask

FMV coverage

100%

93 editions

Depletion

67%

pool · as of 3h ago

Packs remaining

502

of 1,500 minted · as of 3h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 3h ago

33%unopened

502 / 1,500 packs

Legendary1 / 3 (33%)

0.20 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.20 · ≈ launch rate

Rare39 / 95 (41%)

7.8 per 100 sealed packs · launch 6.3 · 1.2× launch rate

Fandom3 / 5 (60%)

Common1,463 / 4,397 (33%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 3h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 3	<0.1%	~1 in 502
Rare	39 / 95	2.6%	~1 in 13
Fandom	3 / 5	0.2%	~1 in 168
Common	1,463 / 4,397	97%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Top Shot This: Playoffs Edition

What's Inside

FMV priced 93 of 93 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@JohnnyDestiny11	$17.00	1d ago
@WokoHaram	$17.00	1d ago
@Mempheattle	$17.00	1d ago
@joel_yates1981	$16.97	5h ago
@Dano77	$16.95	12h ago
@WokoHaram	$16.95	16h ago
@jiggydigital	$16.95	17h ago
@DaTone10	$16.94	5h ago
@JohnnyDestiny11	$16.93	7h ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$16.50	2h ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@blaise_27	$16.25	1h ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$16.50	2h ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$16.50	2h ago
@bergzh	$16.25

Cameron Boozer Tip-Off Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV