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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8911

AJ Dybantsa Tip-Off Pack

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $5.28/pack▼ 78% below the $24.40 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 65% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.40 askTypical pull ≈ $0.48 · grail premium $4.80 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$24.40] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,047

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

3,141

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4,763

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.95

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

453

still unopened

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
AJ Dybantsa · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.45%	$200	51.2%
VJ Edgecombe · Freshman Gems	RARE	0.06%	$297	10.9%
Will Riley · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.06%	$224	8.2%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $17.90 (90d)Last $24.43 · todayRetail $24.40679 sales · 679 in 90d

trades 0.73× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$24.40

Actual EV

$5.28

Net −$19.12 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 65% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.40 ask

Typical Pull

$0.48

Grail premium $4.80 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.22x

-78.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 65% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.40 ask

FMV coverage

99%

92 editions

Depletion

65%

pool · as of 21h ago

Packs remaining

518

of 1,500 minted · as of 21h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 21h ago

35%unopened

518 / 1,500 packs

Legendary1 / 3 (33%)

0.19 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.20 · ≈ launch rate

Rare36 / 96 (38%)

6.9 per 100 sealed packs · launch 6.4 · ≈ launch rate

Fandom0 / 3 (0.0%)

Common1,517 / 4,398 (34%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 21h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 3	<0.1%	~1 in 518
Rare	36 / 96	2.3%	~1 in 15
Fandom	0 / 3	0.0%	depleted
Common	1,517 / 4,398	98%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 91 of 92 (99%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Kiel17	$50.00	5d ago
@MikeMegatron	$26.50	1d ago
@Rigged	$25.23	1d ago
@Rigged	$25.23	1d ago
@Rigged	$25.23	1d ago
@frugal_cassowary	$25.23	1d ago
@AB32	$25.23	1d ago
@Steef	$25.15	1d ago
@Rigged	$25.00	1d ago
@greekfreak	$25.00	1d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@PhiKing	$24.43	2h ago
@CoachJake	$24.44	4h ago
@bergzh	$24.45	6h ago
@Rigged	$24.45

AJ Dybantsa Tip-Off Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV