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NBA Top Shot · Pack #964
Early Adopters (Series 1, Release 3)
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$159
Actual EV
$51.16
Net −$108 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $159
Typical Pull
$23.64
Grail premium $27.52 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
0.32x
-67.8% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $159
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
89%
live pool
Packs remaining
490
of 4,650 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 21h ago11%unopened
Common1,472 / 13,950 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 21h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1,472 / 13,950 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$180
Floor
$153
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.008
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$132
Floor
$121
Mint 1,431
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.01
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$112
Floor
$111
Mint 1,430
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.014
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$102
Floor
$99.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.014
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$67.18
Floor
$66.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.018
OG Anunoby
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$47.25
Floor
$14.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 1.48%Wt 0.016
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$41.21
Floor
$40.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 2.04%Wt 0.022
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$33.63
Floor
$27.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.008
Devin Booker
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$28.50
Floor
$28.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.008
Damian Lillard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$24.44
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.014
Anthony Davis
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$23.08
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.014
De'Aaron Fox
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.93
Floor
$15.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.01
Kawhi Leonard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.25
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,256
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.018
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.024
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$17.89
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 1.11%Wt 0.012
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$16.19
Floor
$13.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.024
Bam Adebayo
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$14.95
Floor
$3.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 1.85%Wt 0.02
Michael Porter Jr.
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$12.50
Floor
$9.00
Mint 1,530
Hit 1.48%Wt 0.016
Karl-Anthony Towns
Early Adopters
COMMON1
FMV
$8.18
Floor
$7.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 10.56%Wt 0.116
Alex Caruso
Early Adopters
COMMON1
FMV
$6.75
Floor
$6.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 9.63%Wt 0.106
Markelle Fultz
Early Adopters
COMMON0
FMV
$6.55
Floor
$5.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 7.22%Wt 0.08
Josh Hart
Early Adopters
COMMON1
FMV
$5.56
Floor
$4.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 8.52%Wt 0.094
Julius Randle
Early Adopters
COMMON1
FMV
$5.41
Floor
$5.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 9.07%Wt 0.1
Mike Conley
Early Adopters
COMMON1
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$3.00
Mint 1,325
Hit 12.41%Wt 0.137