Super Wild Card Weekend - Predict 45 Yard (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.22/pack▼ 95% below the $4.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$4.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

543

complete open history

Moments pulled

543

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.15

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.15

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.22/packvs realized $0.15 avg · $0.15 median(0.68×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 543 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.22	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 3y ago20 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.22

Net −$3.78 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Value ratio

0.06x

-94.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 563 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).