Divisional Round - Predict 45 Yard (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 90% below the $1.99 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.99] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

918

complete open history

Moments pulled

918

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.42

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.21

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

94%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.21 avg · $0.21 median(1.05×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 918 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Queen · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.20	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 2y ago40 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$1.79 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Value ratio

0.10x

-89.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

94%

of all minted packs · as of 54d ago

Packs remaining

of 974 minted · as of 54d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).