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NFL All Day · Pack #1086

Patrick Mahomes II: Divisional Round Scramble

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.42/pack▼ 93% below the $6.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$6.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,636

complete open history

Moments pulled

2,636

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$5.56

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.51

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

364

still unopened

Opened share

88%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.42/packvs realized $0.51 avg · $0.42 median(1.21×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 2,636 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Mahomes II · Divisional Round	COMMON	100.00%	$0.42	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $2.50 (90d)Last $2.50 · 1mo ago297 sales · 9 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.42

Net −$5.58 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-93.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 88% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

88%

of all minted packs · as of 6d ago

Packs remaining

365

of 3,000 minted · as of 6d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

12%unopened

365 / 3,000 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

Top purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MakatiNBAcardz	$4.00	52d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$3.00	52d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$3.00	52d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@MetalSasq	$2.00	83d ago

Recent purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50	36d ago
@KevinBigham	$2.50

Top pulls by EV

top 1

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Patrick Mahomes II	Divisional Round	COMMON	100.00%	$0.42	—

Edition EV = FMV × (its share of the pool's drop weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool.