Conference Championship - Predict 45 Yard (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 91% below the $1.75 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.75 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.75] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,239

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,239

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.54

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.18

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.18 avg · $0.15 median(1.20×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 1,239 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jerome Ford · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.15	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 2y ago64 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.60 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.75 ask

Value ratio

0.09x

-91.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.75 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs · as of 54d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,298 minted · as of 54d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).