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NFL All Day · Pack #1132

Super Bowl LVIII Bonus Pack

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.83/pack▼ 8% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

10,507

complete open history

Moments pulled

10,507

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$11.20

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.18

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

1,993

still unopened

Opened share

84%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.83/packvs realized $0.18 avg · $0.16 median(0.10×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 10,507 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Mahomes II · Super Bowl LVIII (Ultimate)	ULTIMATE	0.05%	$3,500	89.6%
Nick Bosa · Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)	COMMON	14.28%	$0.35	2.7%

Sealed pack resale

Median $2.00 (90d)Last $2.00 · 2mo ago1,671 sales · 3 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.83

Net −$0.17 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.92x

-8.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

84%

of all minted packs · as of 29d ago

Packs remaining

1,993

of 12,500 minted · as of 29d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~91% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.

Packs Content Remaining

pool

16%unopened

1,993 / 12,500 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

UltimateHit 0.05%

Patrick Mahomes II

Super Bowl LVIII (Ultimate)

$3,500

CommonHit 14.28%

Nick Bosa

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

$0.35

CommonHit 14.28%

Fred Warner

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

$0.23

CommonHit 14.28%

Jake Moody

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

$0.16

CommonHit 14.28%

Arik Armstead

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

$0.16

What's Inside

pullable editions

Patrick Mahomes II

Player Melt · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Ultimate)

Tackle · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Tackle · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Field Goal · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Reception · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Reception · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Tackle · Feb 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

Top purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
0xe4cc…208b	$2.00	45d ago
0x72db…b0d2	$2.00	52d ago
0x0883…1836	$2.00	176d ago
0x9184…7095	$2.00	185d ago
@Elosworld	$2.00	185d ago
@Elosworld	$2.00	192d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.00	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Recent purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
0xe4cc…208b	$2.00	45d ago
0x72db…b0d2	$2.00	52d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.00	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00

Top pulls by EV

top 8

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Fred Warner	Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)	COMMON	14.28%	$0.23	—
Nick Bosa	Super Bowl LVIII (Common/Uncommon)	COMMON	14.28%	$0.35	—
Jerick McKinnon