Daily PB - May '24 100 Yards (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 93% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

994

complete open history

Moments pulled

994

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.04

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.26

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

93%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.26 avg · $0.26 median(1.30×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 994 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
George Pickens · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.20	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.00 (90d)Last $1.00 · 1mo ago53 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$2.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-93.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

93%

of all minted packs · as of 37d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,073 minted · as of 37d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).