Draw it Up: T.J. Watt (Series 2)

Premium1 slot

Value still sealed≈ $2.00/pack▼ 100% below the $5,000 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5,000 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5,000] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

373

complete open history

Moments pulled

373

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

100%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
T.J. Watt · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$2.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.00

Net −$4,998 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5,000 ask

Value ratio

0.00x

-100.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5,000 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

100%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 375 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).