Daily PB - June '24 100 Yards (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.65/pack▼ 67% below the $1.99 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.99] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

575

complete open history

Moments pulled

575

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2.60

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.65

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

95%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.65/packvs realized $0.65 avg · $0.65 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 575 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Myles Garrett · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.65	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.50 (90d)Last $1.50 · 2mo ago30 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.65

Net −$1.34 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Value ratio

0.33x

-67.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

95%

of all minted packs · as of 54d ago

Packs remaining

of 605 minted · as of 54d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).