Draw it Up: Adam Thielen (Series 2)

Standard1 slot

Value still sealed≈ $0.55/pack▼ 72% below the $1.99 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.99] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

3,708

complete open history

Moments pulled

3,708

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.56

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.56

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.55/packvs realized $0.56 avg · $0.56 median(1.02×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 3,708 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Adam Thielen · Draw it Up	COMMON	100.00%	$0.55	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $3.00 · 2y ago9 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.55

Net −$1.44 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

Value ratio

0.28x

-72.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.99 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 3,757 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).