Legends of the Turf Bonus Pack

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.04/pack▼ 48% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

10,984

complete open history

Moments pulled

10,984

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$6.78

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.19

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

2,516

still unopened

Opened share

81%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.04/packvs realized $0.19 avg · $0.20 median(0.18×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 10,984 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
LaDainian Tomlinson · Marquee	ULTIMATE	0.03%	$3,495	82.9%
Jamal Lewis · Gridiron	COMMON	12.50%	$0.24	2.8%
Jay Schroeder

Sealed pack resale

Median $2.00 (90d)Last $2.00 · 3d ago991 sales · 4 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.04

Net −$0.96 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.52x

-48.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

81%

of all minted packs · as of 3d ago

Packs remaining

2,517

of 13,500 minted · as of 3d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~84% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.