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NFL All Day · Pack #174

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 21)

Standard1 slot

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 100% below the $45.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $45.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$45.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

100

complete open history

Moments pulled

100

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Adrian Peterson · Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.65	7.5%
Olamide Zaccheaus · Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.50	5.8%
Ben Skowronek · Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.38	4.4%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $16.00 · 4y ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$44.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $45.00 ask

Value ratio

0.00x

-99.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $45.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 103 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.9%unopened

3 / 103 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Adrian Peterson	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.65	$0.02
Olamide Zaccheaus	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.50	$0.01
Ben Skowronek	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.38	$0.01
Albert Okwuegbunam	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.30	$0.01
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.28	$0.01
Damiere Byrd	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.27	$0.01
Josiah Deguara	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.25	$0.01
Ashton Dulin	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.25	$0.01
Matthew Ioannidis	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.25	$0.01
Gardner Minshew II	Base	COMMON	2.72%	$0.25	$0.01

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 21)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV