Draw it Up: Christian McCaffrey (Series 2)

Premium

Value still sealed≈ $1.00/pack▼ 98% below the $44.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $44.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$44.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,118

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,118

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.75

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.75

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.00/packvs realized $1.75 avg · $1.75 median(1.75×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 1,118 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Christian McCaffrey · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$1.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $40.00 · 2y ago69 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.00

Net −$43.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $44.00 ask

Value ratio

0.02x

-97.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $44.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 130d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,149 minted · as of 130d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).