Draw it Up: Patrick Mahomes II (Series 2)

Premium

Value still sealed≈ $18.00/pack▼ 91% below the $199 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $199 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$199] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

569

complete open history

Moments pulled

569

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Mahomes II · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$18.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $148 · 2y ago50 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$18.00

Net −$181 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $199 ask

Value ratio

0.09x

-91.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $199 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 585 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).