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NFL All Day · Pack #25

Rewind: Reward (Series 1, Release 7)

Standard3 slots

Value still sealed≈ $0.81/pack▼ 73% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

11,345

complete open history

Moments pulled

34,035

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$3.47

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.16

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

266

still unopened

Opened share

100%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.81/packvs realized $1.16 avg · $1.30 median(1.43×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 11,345 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Derrick Henry · Base	COMMON	3.09%	$0.99	9.0%
Matthew Stafford · Move the Chains	COMMON	2.47%	$1.00	7.2%

Sealed pack resale

Last $5.00 · 2y ago10 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.81

Net −$2.19 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Value ratio

0.27x

-73.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

100%

of all minted packs · as of 11d ago

Packs remaining

271

of 11,997 minted · as of 11d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.3%unopened

271 / 11,997 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Cordarrelle Patterson

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Derrick Henry	Base	COMMON	3.09%	$0.99	$0.09
Matthew Stafford	Move the Chains	COMMON	2.47%	$1.00	$0.07
Cincinnati Bengals	Make the Stop	COMMON	2.16%	$0.99	$0.06
New England Patriots	Locked In	RARE	0.37%	$4.00	$0.04
Ben Skowronek	Base	COMMON	3.09%	$0.38	$0.04
Amari Cooper	Move the Chains	COMMON	2.47%	$0.45	$0.03
Tua Tagovailoa	Base	COMMON	3.09%	$0.35	$0.03
Nick Bosa	Base	COMMON	3.09%	$0.33	$0.03
Kyler Murray	Move the Chains	COMMON	2.47%	$0.38	$0.03
J.J. Watt	Ball Hawk	RARE	0.31%	$2.92	$0.03

Rewind: Reward (Series 1, Release 7)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV