Draw it Up: Jaylen Waddle (Series 2)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.00/pack▼ 75% below the $4.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$4.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,878

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,878

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4.00

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.00

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.00/packvs realized $1.00 avg · $1.00 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 1,878 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jaylen Waddle · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$1.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 4mo ago67 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.00

Net −$3.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Value ratio

0.25x

-75.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,933 minted · as of 66d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).