Draw it Up: Kyle Hamilton (Series 2)

Premium

Value still sealed≈ $1.50/pack▼ 90% below the $15.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 89% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$15.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

779

complete open history

Moments pulled

779

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.57

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.57

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

89%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.50/packvs realized $1.57 avg · $1.57 median(1.05×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 779 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Kyle Hamilton · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$1.50	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $19.00 · 2y ago29 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.50

Net −$13.50 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 89% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Value ratio

0.10x

-90.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 89% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

89%

of all minted packs · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

of 872 minted · as of 66d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).