Legacy: Aaron Donald (Historical 2)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.32/pack▼ 84% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,953

complete open history

Moments pulled

2,953

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.88

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.22

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

178

still unopened

Opened share

94%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.32/packvs realized $0.22 avg · $0.22 median(0.69×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 2,953 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Aaron Donald · Legacy	COMMON	100.00%	$0.32	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $0.75 (90d)Last $1.00 · 2mo ago147 sales · 3 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.32

Net −$1.68 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.16x

-84.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

94%

of all minted packs · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

178

of 3,131 minted · as of 66d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).