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NFL All Day · Pack #37

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 1)

Standard1 slot

Value still sealed≈ $0.21/pack▼ 98% below the $9.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$9.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

15,789

complete open history

Moments pulled

15,789

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.25

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.31

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

225

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.21/packvs realized $0.31 avg · $0.25 median(1.48×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 15,789 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Saquon Barkley · Base	COMMON	2.50%	$1.00	8.7%
Chuba Hubbard · Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.65	5.6%

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 2y ago6 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.21

Net −$8.79 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.00 ask

Value ratio

0.02x

-97.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $9.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

225

of 16,089 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

1.4%unopened

225 / 16,089 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Saquon Barkley	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$1.00	$0.03
Dak Prescott	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.65	$0.02
Chuba Hubbard	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.65	$0.02
Atlanta Falcons	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.63	$0.02
T.J. Watt	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.50	$0.01
Andy Dalton	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.48	$0.01
C.J. Mosley	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.48	$0.01
Jordan Love	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.42	$0.01
Tua Tagovailoa	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.35	$0.01
D'Andre Swift	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.29	$0.01

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 1)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV