Legacy: Derrick Henry (Historical 2)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $5.00/pack▼ 93% below the $70.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $70.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$70.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

333

complete open history

Moments pulled

333

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$40.50

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$40.50

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $5.00/packvs realized $40.50 avg · $40.50 median(8.10×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 333 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Derrick Henry · Legacy	RARE	100.00%	$5.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$5.00

Net −$65.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $70.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $70.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 339 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).