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NFL All Day · Pack #3940

CHASE THE TOP PLAY FROM SUNDAY (10/09/24)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.00/pack▼ 86% below the $7.00 secondary askTypical pull ≈ $0.75

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$7.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

8,637

complete open history

Moments pulled

43,185

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2.10

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.10

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

1,363

still unopened

Opened share

86%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.00/packvs realized $2.10 avg · $2.10 median(2.10×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 8,637 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Alvin Kamara · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$112	4.5%
Xavier Worthy · Rookie Marquee	ULTIMATE	<0.01%	$450	3.7%
Tyreek Hill

Sealed pack resale

Last $6.00 · 1y agoRetail $5.00887 sales

Pack price

$7.00

Actual EV

$1.00

Mean pull · Net −$6.00 vs ask

Typical Pull

$0.75

Weighted-median pull value

Value ratio

0.14x

-85.7% margin

FMV coverage

100%

117 editions

Depletion

86%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

1,363

of 10,000 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

14%unopened

1,363 / 10,000 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 117 of 117 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Maxx Crosby	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.43	—
Zach Charbonnet	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.13	—
Jameson Williams	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.14	—
Chris Godwin	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.13	—
Tua Tagovailoa	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.13	—
Deonte Banks	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.14	—
Brandon Aiyuk	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.10	—
Jaelan Phillips	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.15	—
Joe Cardona	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.16	—
Josh Reynolds	Base	COMMON	0.01%	$0.14	—

CHASE THE TOP PLAY FROM SUNDAY (10/09/24)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV