Chicago Bears - Souvenir Pack (10/06/2024)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $2.00/pack▼ 98% below the $99.00 secondary ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$99.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

352

complete open history

Moments pulled

352

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4.50

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.50

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

2,248

still unopened

Opened share

14%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $2.00/packvs realized $4.50 avg · $4.50 median(2.25×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 352 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Chicago Bears · Souvenir	COMMON	100.00%	$2.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $35.00 · 2y ago3 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.00

Mean pull · Net −$97.00 vs ask

Value ratio

0.02x

-98.0% margin

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

14%

of all minted packs · as of 54d ago

Packs remaining

2,248

of 2,600 minted · as of 54d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).