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NFL All Day · Pack #4033

CHASE THE TOP PLAY FROM SUNDAY (10/20/24)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.89/pack▼ 99% below the $100 secondary askTypical pull ≈ $0.75

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$100] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

3,599

complete open history

Moments pulled

17,995

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

1,401

still unopened

Opened share

72%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Brian Thomas · Rookie Marquee	ULTIMATE	<0.01%	$765	4.4%
Alvin Kamara · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$112	3.2%
Tyreek Hill · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$89.10	2.5%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $9.00 · 2y agoRetail $5.00242 sales

Pack price

$100

Actual EV

$0.89

Mean pull · Net −$99.11 vs ask

Typical Pull

$0.75

Weighted-median pull value

Value ratio

0.01x

-99.1% margin

FMV coverage

100%

161 editions

Depletion

72%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

1,401

of 5,000 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

28%unopened

1,401 / 5,000 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 161 of 161 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Bryce Young	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.13	—
Derwin James	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.15	—
Joey Bosa	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.14	—
Alex Singleton	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.15	—
George Kittle	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.15	—
Khalil Herbert	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.14	—
Aaron Jones	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.14	—
Stefon Diggs	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.14	—
D'Andre Swift	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.17	—
Chase Brown	Base	COMMON	0.02%	$0.20	—

CHASE THE TOP PLAY FROM SUNDAY (10/20/24)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV