Demarcus Lawrence - Defensive Gems (Locking Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.85/pack▼ 93% below the $12.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $12.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$12.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

149

complete open history

Moments pulled

149

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.85

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.85

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.85/packvs realized $0.85 avg · $0.85 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 149 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Demarcus Lawrence · Defensive Gems	RARE	100.00%	$0.85	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.85

Net −$11.15 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $12.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $12.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 154 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).