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NFL All Day · Pack #4238

2024 Season - Week 11 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 93% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

3,132

complete open history

Moments pulled

3,132

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.80

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.15

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

253

still unopened

Opened share

93%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.15 avg · $0.15 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 3,132 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Sam Darnold · Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.22	2.9%
Sam Hubbard · Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.21	2.8%
Chase Brown

Sealed pack resale

Last $1.00 · 11mo ago131 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

93%

of all minted packs · as of 37d ago

Packs remaining

253

of 3,385 minted · as of 37d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

7.5%unopened

253 / 3,385 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.16	—
Miles Sanders	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.14	—
Jake Ferguson	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.16	—
Zay Flowers	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.15	—
A.J. Brown	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.14	—
Garrett Wilson	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.15	—
Devin Singletary	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.14	—
George Pickens	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.17	—
Michael Pittman Jr.	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.14	—
Harrison Smith	Base	COMMON	2.00%	$0.14	—

2024 Season - Week 11 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV