Brian Branch - Defensive Gems (Locking Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $2.00/pack▼ 93% below the $29.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$29.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

131

complete open history

Moments pulled

131

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

94%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Brian Branch · Defensive Gems	RARE	100.00%	$2.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $29.00 · 2y ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.00

Net −$27.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-93.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

94%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 139 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).