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NFL All Day · Pack #4279

2024 Season - Week 12 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 88% below the $1.20 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.20 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.20] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,161

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,161

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.45

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.15

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

103

still unopened

Opened share

92%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.15 avg · $0.16 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 1,161 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Aidan O'Connell · Base	COMMON	1.03%	$0.24	1.7%
Ja'Marr Chase · Base	COMMON	1.03%	$0.22	1.5%

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.50 (90d)Last $1.50 · 2mo ago53 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.05 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.20 ask

Value ratio

0.13x

-87.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.20 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

92%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

103

of 1,264 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

8.1%unopened

103 / 1,264 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Ezekiel Elliott	Base	COMMON	1.03%	$0.18	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	1.03%	$0.16	—
George Kittle

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.50	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.50	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.50	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.50	54d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

2024 Season - Week 12 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV