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NFL All Day · Pack #4453

2024 Season - Week 15 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 99% below the $14.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$14.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

169

complete open history

Moments pulled

169

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.27

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.14

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

90%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.14 avg · $0.14 median(0.93×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 169 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Aidan O'Connell · Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.24	3.7%
Sam Hubbard · Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.21	3.3%
Jaleel McLaughlin

Sealed pack resale

Last $1.00 · 9mo ago12 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$13.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

Value ratio

0.01x

-98.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

90%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 188 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

10%unopened

19 / 188 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.16	—
Miles Sanders	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.14	—
Jake Ferguson	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.16	—
Stefon Diggs	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.14	—
Deommodore Lenoir	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.15	—
Harrison Smith	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.14	—
Amani Hooker	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.15	—
Bryan Cook	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.15	—
Nolan Smith	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.15	—
Karl Brooks	Base	COMMON	2.33%	$0.15	—

2024 Season - Week 15 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV