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NFL All Day · Pack #4580

2024 Season - Week 16 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 93% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 91% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

3,140

complete open history

Moments pulled

3,140

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2.51

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.18

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

293

still unopened

Opened share

92%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.18 avg · $0.16 median(1.20×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 3,140 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Josh Allen · Base	COMMON	0.75%	$0.50	2.3%
Patrick Mahomes II · Base	COMMON	0.75%	$0.41	1.9%
Joe Burrow

Sealed pack resale

Last $1.00 · 3mo ago106 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 91% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 91% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

92%

of all minted packs · as of 54d ago

Packs remaining

293

of 3,433 minted · as of 54d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

8.5%unopened

293 / 3,433 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	0.75%	$0.16	—
Jacoby Brissett	Base	COMMON	0.75%	$0.15	—

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago

2024 Season - Week 16 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV