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NFL All Day · Pack #4635

2024 Season - Week 18 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 85% below the $1.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,705

complete open history

Moments pulled

2,705

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2.47

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.16

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

283

still unopened

Opened share

91%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.17 avg · $0.16 median(1.13×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 2,704 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Josh Allen · Base	COMMON	0.71%	$0.50	2.2%
Patrick Mahomes II · Base	COMMON	0.71%	$0.41	1.8%

Sealed pack resale

Median $0.85 (90d)Last $0.85 · 2mo ago53 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$0.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

Value ratio

0.15x

-85.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 90% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

91%

of all minted packs · as of 2h ago

Packs remaining

285

of 2,988 minted · as of 2h ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

9.5%unopened

285 / 2,988 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Buyer	Sale price	When
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@MR_FEENY	$1.00	104d ago
@Elosworld	$1.00	187d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$0.85	53d ago

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Ezekiel Elliott	Base	COMMON	0.71%	$0.18	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	0.71%	$0.16	—
Miles Sanders

2024 Season - Week 18 Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV