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NFL All Day · Pack #4792

2024 Season - Conference Championships Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 93% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,404

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,404

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.28

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.16

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

311

still unopened

Opened share

82%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.16 avg · $0.16 median(1.07×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 1,404 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Josh Allen · Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.50	3.6%
Joe Burrow · Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.39	2.8%
Davante Adams

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 1y ago45 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

82%

of all minted packs · as of 15d ago

Packs remaining

311

of 1,715 minted · as of 15d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

18%unopened

311 / 1,715 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Ezekiel Elliott	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.18	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.16	—
Miles Sanders	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.14	—
Khalil Herbert	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.14	—
Jake Ferguson	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.16	—
Stefon Diggs	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.14	—
Austin Ekeler	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.14	—
Baker Mayfield	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.15	—
Jonnu Smith	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.15	—
Mo Alie-Cox	Base	COMMON	1.16%	$0.15	—

2024 Season - Conference Championships Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV