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NFL All Day · Pack #4895

2024 Season - Super Bowl LIX Playbook (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 85% below the $1.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$1.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

5,176

complete open history

Moments pulled

5,176

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$14.58

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.17

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

1,227

still unopened

Opened share

81%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.17 avg · $0.15 median(1.13×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 5,176 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Joe Burrow · Base	COMMON	1.64%	$0.39	4.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown · Base	COMMON	1.64%	$0.24	2.6%

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.00 (90d)Last $1.00 · 24d ago180 sales · 7 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$0.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

Value ratio

0.15x

-85.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 81% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

81%

of all minted packs · as of 4d ago

Packs remaining

1,228

of 6,403 minted · as of 4d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

19%unopened

1,228 / 6,403 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Buyer	Sale price	When
@jmatthys96	$2.00	191d ago
@Johnwick316	$1.00	24d ago
@Richardbesherse	$1.00	30d ago
0x8b26…f8b8	$1.00	46d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$1.00	54d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$0.99	52d ago
@MakatiNBAcardz	$0.90	54d ago
@Sfuran	$0.90	54d ago

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Base	COMMON	1.64%	$0.16	—
Miles Sanders	Base	COMMON	1.64%	$0.14	—
Jake Ferguson

2024 Season - Super Bowl LIX Playbook (Playbook Reward)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV