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NFL All Day · Pack #5607

Cam Ward - Rookie Debut Moment

Common

Value still sealed≈ $37.13/pack▲ 86% above the $20.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$20.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

362

complete open history

Moments pulled

362

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$16.58

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$5.53

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $37.13/packvs realized $5.53 avg · $6.29 median(0.15×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 362 attributed opens

Pack price

—

Actual EV

$37.13

Net +$17.13 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00

Value ratio

1.86x

85.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs

Packs remaining

of 379 minted

⚠ Rough estimate. EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~100% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data — treat as a rough estimate.

Packs Content Remaining

live pool

4.5%unopened

17 / 379 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

CommonHit 1.96%

Cam Ward

Rookie Debut: Signature Edition

What's Inside

pullable editions

Cam Ward

Rookie Debut: Signature Edition

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 2 of ?

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Cam Ward	Rookie Debut	COMMON	98.04%	$4.25	—
Cam Ward	Rookie Debut: Signature Edition	COMMON	1.96%	$70.00	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted —. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.