Abdul Carter - Rookie Debut Moment

Common

Value still sealed≈ $166/pack▲ 240% above the $49.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $49.00

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$49.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

319

complete open history

Moments pulled

319

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$8.50

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.94

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $166/packvs realized $0.94 avg · $1.00 median(0.01×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 319 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Abdul Carter · Rookie Debut: Signature Edition	COMMON	1.96%	$333	95.0%
Abdul Carter · Rookie Debut	COMMON	98.04%	$0.35	5.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $31.00 · 1y ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$166

Net +$117 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $49.00

Value ratio

3.40x

239.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $49.00

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 329 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~100% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.