Mason Graham - Rookie Debut Moment

Common

Value still sealed≈ $2.63/pack▼ 76% below the $11.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $11.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$11.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

321

complete open history

Moments pulled

321

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.27

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.27

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

93%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $2.63/packvs realized $0.27 avg · $0.27 median(0.10×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 321 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Mason Graham · Rookie Debut	COMMON	98.04%	$0.16	61.1%
Mason Graham · Rookie Debut: Signature Edition	COMMON	1.96%	$5.10	38.9%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $7.00 · 1y ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.63

Net −$8.37 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $11.00 ask

Value ratio

0.24x

-76.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $11.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

93%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 347 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).