Ashton Jeanty - Rookie Debut Moment

Common

Value still sealed≈ $21.75/pack▼ 13% below the $25.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $25.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$25.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

352

complete open history

Moments pulled

352

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$23.95

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.99

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $21.75/packvs realized $2.99 avg · $3.23 median(0.14×)

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 352 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Ashton Jeanty · Rookie Debut	COMMON	98.04%	$1.00	54.1%
Ashton Jeanty · Rookie Debut: Signature Edition	COMMON	1.96%	$42.50	45.9%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $25.00 · 1y ago5 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$21.75

Net −$3.25 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $25.00 ask

Value ratio

0.87x

-13.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $25.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 364 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).