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NFL All Day · Pack #5635

Josh Conerly - Rookie Debut Moment

Common

Value still sealed≈ $0.30/pack▼ 85% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

311

complete open history

Moments pulled

311

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.61

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.61

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

95%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.30/packvs realized $0.61 avg · $0.61 median(2.03×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 311 attributed opens

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 1y ago1 sale

Pack price

—

Actual EV

$0.30

Net −$1.70 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

Value ratio

0.15x

-85.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

95%

of all minted packs

Packs remaining

of 328 minted

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

live pool

5.2%unopened

17 / 328 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 1 of ?

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Josh Conerly	Rookie Debut	COMMON	100.00%	$0.30	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted —. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.