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NFL All Day · Pack #5645

2nd Round Defense - Rookie Debut Moments (2025 Draft)

Common

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 90% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,444

complete open history

Moments pulled

4,444

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$27.74

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.30

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.30 avg · $0.30 median(1.50×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 4,444 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Nick Emmanwori · Rookie Debut	COMMON	6.25%	$0.35	10.4%
Alfred Collins · Rookie Debut	COMMON	6.25%	$0.25	7.5%
Carson Schwesinger

Sealed pack resale

Median $1.60 (90d)Last $1.60 · 2mo ago36 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$1.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.10x

-90.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

of 4,542 minted · as of 66d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.2%unopened

98 / 4,542 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Andrew Mukuba	Rookie Debut	COMMON	6.25%	$0.19	—
Will Johnson	Rookie Debut	COMMON	6.25%	$0.19	—

2nd Round Defense - Rookie Debut Moments (2025 Draft)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV