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NFL All Day · Pack #5646

3rd/4th Round Offense - Rookie Debut Moments (2025 Draft)

Common

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 93% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,813

complete open history

Moments pulled

4,813

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$36.13

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.32

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

125

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.32 avg · $0.26 median(1.60×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 4,813 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Cam Skattebo · Rookie Debut	COMMON	5.00%	$1.00	18.6%
Jalen Milroe · Rookie Debut	COMMON	5.00%	$0.45	8.3%
Bhayshul Tuten

Sealed pack resale

Median $0.98 (90d)Last $0.95 · 22d ago108 sales · 2 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$2.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-93.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 22d ago

Packs remaining

125

of 4,938 minted · as of 22d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.5%unopened

125 / 4,938 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Bhayshul Tuten	Rookie Debut	COMMON	5.00%	$0.35	—
Dillon Gabriel	Rookie Debut	COMMON	5.00%	$0.30	—

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Sfuran	$1.00	39d ago
@Crunkilton	$0.95	22d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Crunkilton	$0.95	22d ago
@Sfuran	$1.00	39d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Sfuran	$1.00	39d ago
@Crunkilton	$0.95	22d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Crunkilton	$0.95	22d ago
@Sfuran	$1.00	39d ago

3rd/4th Round Offense - Rookie Debut Moments (2025 Draft)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV